Cyclospora (Taylor / Produce)
Simulated risk for leafy-green salad kits and related products historically associated with cyclosporiasis outbreaks.
- Zones: Salinas Valley, Yuma/Imperial, Central Valley CA, Nogales corridor, Florida winter veg, Rio Grande.
- Products: Taylor Farms kits, Earthbound, Eat Smart, Marketside, private-label chopped kits, high-susceptibility jalapeño-linked items.
- Model drivers: proximity to ag contamination zones, product cyclo susceptibility (0–1), low shelf stock, multi-SKU portfolio multiplier.
Listeria (Deli / Lunchmeat)
Simulated risk centered on the 2024 Boar’s Head outbreak and subsequent RTE meat / deli recalls through 2026.
- Key public event: Boar’s Head Jarratt, VA plant — 61 cases, 60 hospitalizations, 10 deaths across 19 states (largest US listeriosis outbreak in > a decade). Expanded recall ~7 million lb.
- Later signals: Yu Shang Food (2024), Fresh & Ready Foods (2025), City Foods / Bea’s Best pastrami & corned beef (Chicago, Aug 2026), multiple smaller RTE recalls.
- Zones: Jarratt VA epicenter, Northeast deli corridor, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest processing, Southeast case cluster, Southwest.
- Products: Boar’s Head liverwurst / ham / turkey / bologna, Old Country, Dietz & Watson, Hillshire, Oscar Mayer, private-label deli, 2026 City Foods pastrami.
- Model drivers: distance to known plants, product susceptibility (liverwurst highest), cold-chain distance, multi-SKU portfolio.
Salmonella (Shell Eggs)
Simulated risk tied to the 2025–2026 multistate Salmonella Enteritidis outbreak linked to Midwest Poultry Services Texas farms.
- Key public event: ~1.59 million dozen shell eggs recalled (white + brown cage-free). 98 illnesses, 26 hospitalizations, 0 deaths reported across 17 states (AZ, CA, CO, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MS, NC, NM, NV, NY, OK, SC, TX, WV). Illness onset Nov 2025 – Jun 2026.
- Brands / packs: Kroger, Simple Truth, Brookshire’s, Cal-Maine, Country Morning, plus conventional private-label and higher-risk cage-free SKUs.
- Zones: Texas production farms (epicenter), TX–OK–LA–NM–MS–AR distribution belt, Midwest Poultry IN hub, South-Central / Southwest / Southeast secondary clusters.
- Model drivers: proximity to TX farms + IN HQ, product susceptibility (cage-free brown highest, pasteurized lowest), stock pressure, portfolio size.